From a systemic socioeconomic point of view the Arab Spring just could rise like the phoenix from the ashes and spread throughout the entire region, because the West and the industrial developed countries in general were massively weakened through the still ongoing recent economic crisis beginning in 2007.
So due to the fact that the world's big economic powers such as the USA, Canada, EU, Japan, Australia, China, etc. and their political decision makers, and so the focus of the world leaders, were distracted by their severe internal/domestic problems which they had to solve in getting in control over their internal structural malfunctions. Without the still ongoing economic crisis from 2007 there would not have been an Arab Spring in my point of view.
So all of the fallen middle eastern dictators (in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and soon Syria) being just proxy governors for foreign powers over decades, who were brought down through the Arab Spring, would be still in charge and rule with an iron fist over their people if the influential foreign powers would not have stumbled over their homemade internal structural problems based on individual and corporate greed and the political elite lacking to balance the wealth to all parts of their societies. Due to this failure of the political elite of the economical developed countries within their own countries they lost the ability to control the Middle East despite their levers of historical grounded and economical and militarily backed structural violence.
Along with that socioeconomic analysis goes, that the Arab Spring is not just endemic or limited to the Middle Eastern countries in the closer sense but the Arab Soring is on the contrary an political export model spreading out over the entire region since its started in 2011 to all of the countries where Muslims worldwide, even to countries or regions where Muslims are just minorities.
So from my perspective it is most likely that the global media and the world attention will get drawn onto not just the Maghreb region and Middle Eastern region in a closer sense for sociopolitical change, where we already can observe this development of sociopolitical turmoil, but the Arab Spring will also spread out and hit and contage the Muslim populations and in the northern parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, Western and Central Africa such as Norther Nigeria, Senegal, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Cameroon etc. respectively. The conflicts in Mali and the Central African Republic are just harbingers for this sociopolitical flashover effect.
It is also most likely that the Arab Spring movement will spread out to Bangladesh, Myanmar, Pakistan, India, China, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. In every of this countries it will show with different symptoms but it all will have the signature of Muslims getting confident and reaching for power and self-control and sovereignty. In some of this countries such as China with the two recent attacks, traced back to the Uyghur freedom movement in Xinjiang, it already has begun.
All this developments in recent history are systemic movements of sociopolitical change that could very soon lead to an more and more strengthening self-confidence of the Muslims all over the world....an development which is in the making as we read and write.
Dr. Dr. Immanuel Fruhmann
Global Philosopher and Socioeconomic Analyst
